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Mass Confusion about NVIDIA's G70 |
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And Other Parts |
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by Josh Walrath |
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Throughout the past 5 months we have been hearing many conflicting reports about what the G70 will be. If Burkett is giving us a true glimpse (which I think he is), then we can speculate on what we can expect to see. First off the G70 will be 90 nm (and not the 110 nm that we were all expecting), and it will probably be clocked significantly higher than the 430 MHz that the leaked presentation documented. We can also expect a part that is around 300 million transistors. Depending on how NVIDIA has allocated those transistors, I think we will see a minimum of 24 pixel pipelines. There has been a lot of talk about the possibility of 32 pixel pipelines, but I just don't know if that will happen. My conservative nature says no, but it is a distinct possibility that there could be essentially 32 pixel pipelines. I think we will also see a new multi-sampling unit that will be able to handle HDR content (unlike the current unit). Other things such as PureVideo will of course be included, and we will probably see a couple of new wrinkles. The "GT" version of this part could be clocked around 450 MHz, while the "Ultra" edition of this part will probably be 500 MHz+. Power consumption will still be around 6800 Ultra levels. With that out of the way, we can move onto the fun stuff! Now, this is all speculation as essentially NOTHING of the other G7x products has been leaked. I have a feeling that with the overall success of TSMC's 90 nm process (which is apparently very, very healthy) we can expect to see NVIDIA phasing out its NV40/41/45/48 chips. These are very large at 130 nm, and are not as cost effective as they once were. I feel that there is going to be a large turnover in the $250 to $400 range with a new set of products. The NV43/44/44a will continue to address the low end to the $200 market, but the large 130 nm NV4x parts will soon be replaced by smaller, more cost effective 90 nm parts. I think we will see some true competition to ATI's 110 nm X800 series (the X800 and X800 XL). The new series of 90 nm products will feature the same pixel pipeline design of the G70, and all of the optimizations that entails. If my speculation is correct then the low end 90 nm part will be a 12 pixel pipeline product running between 450 MHz to 500 MHz. This will compete with the X800, and from past indications on per clock performance of the NV4x architecture, this should be faster than the X800, yet still be priced around the $249 level. The next step up will be a full 16 pixel pipeline design running around 500 MHz. This will compete with the X800 XL in price, but will of course be faster. If this product does in fact exist, and is sold around the $299 mark, then it could seriously be the best bang for the buck that we have seen since the X800 XL. This leaves room for one more product. A G7x part with 16 pixel pipelines and running at 600 MHz would exist at the $350 to $400 price range. This part would of course spank all of the current high end cards (6800 Ultra, X800/X850 XT PE), yet be offered at a lower price point. While this card would be very fast, it will still not be able to compete with the high end G70 parts priced at $450 and above. A massive move to 90 nm would give NVIDIA a pretty solid segmentation of products, and allow them to stop their 130 nm production of large parts. The only real question here is what will happen to the 110 nm NV42? Would NVIDIA be better off keeping that part and moving it down to the $200 price point and keep the 6200 and 6600 parts at sub-$175? Or will the 6600 GT still be the best part at just under $200 and phase out the NV42? My gut feeling is that NVIDIA will stop production on the NV42, as it honestly gives about the same overall performance as the cheaper 6600 GT. So, by the end of this summer, NVIDIA will only be producing 110 nm NV43/44/44a and the 90 nm G7x parts. Again, much of this is speculation based on comments by Marv Burkett, as well as some other small leaks and info that is floating around. When ATI released their R300 in the form of the 9700 Pro, and NVIDIA was left sitting with the aging GeForce 4 Ti series to compete with this product and the NV30 had not seen the light of day, Jen-Hsun challenged his people to match ATI, and he essentially said, "This is war!" If NVIDIA is continuing with that philosophy, then we can expect to see a lot more disinformation on coming products, and the smoke will get amazingly thick. The only thing we shouldn't do is underestimate NVIDIA. It is a very aggressive company, and their engineering talent is seriously second to none. Hopefully ATI will have taken this challenge seriously, and we can expect to see some impressive parts from them as well. The R520 does not look to be a slouch, but hopefully ATI has not been lulled into complacency with the rumors that the G70 is a lower clocked 110 nm part.
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